- Environment and Global Warming ·Global Warming Effects on Wildlife Population ·Global Warming Effects on Vegetation ·Global Warming Effects on Marine Biodiversity ØGlobal Warming and marine life population ØGlobal Warming and Coral reef loss Ø Sea Ice Surface Area and Polar Bear Population - Population affects on morality statistics: Ø Population vs. Morality by disease Ø Population vs. Morality by cancer Ø Population vs. Morality by automobile accident
- Population affects on the Environment
Ø Population affects on Gas Emissions Produced per year.
MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST: Population vs. Gas Emissions Produced per year
Background Information:
For over a decade now, a main concern of many environmentalists has been the amount of green house gas emissions not only Canada, but the world produces each year. The term “Global Warming” refers to an increase of the average temperature in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are mainly composed of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapor and fluorinated gases. This mixture of gases is essential for the earth because without it the earth would release all of its heat leaving the earth extremely cold. However, this mixture of gases allows the heat from the sun to enter the atmosphere, but does not allow the heat to leave; Thus, producing an atmosphere that continues to heat up over time that never cools back down. This problem has been slowly increasing throughout the decades and has picked up speed at the beginning of the new millennium (2000).
With a possibility of an increasing population, this would create a higher demand for carbon and methane producing products, such as the burning of coal, oil and fossil fuels. Users of this include automobiles, aircrafts and watercrafts, industrial plants, coal burning power plants, landfills and electricity production. When the demand is higher, the production increases and more of these gases are produced, making a thicker atmosphere that holds more heat. Increasing heat causes a temperature imbalance in the earth, causing many ecosystems and food chains to change and when they can’t keep up, collapse. For example, increasing temperatures cause loss of arctic sea ice, which melts away the habitat for many arctic creatures such as seals, sea lions, polar bears and penguins. If the problem does not stop or decrease we will have serious environmental issues that will cause our entire earth suffering and to quickly adjust to the earth’s new adaptations.
BUT….. BACK TO THE ACTUAL PROJECT.
Data Information:
Geography- Canada
Years- 2000-2006
Question: Does Canada’s population increase affect the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced in Canada on a yearly basis?
Hypothesis: I predict that the population will be increasing over the years, and thus the cause the amount of gas emissions to increase as well. This is because as the population increases, so does the demand for natural gas, coal and oil producing products which create a higher concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.
Stage 2: Data Analysis VARIABLE ONE: POPULATION
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
30,685,730
31,019,020
31,353,656
31,639,670
31,940,676
32,245,209
32,576,074
ear
"X"
(x-µ)
(x-µ)²
2000
30,685,730
- 1,283,084
1.646 x 10^12
2001
31,019,020
-949,794
9.02 x 10^11
2002
31,353,656
-615,158
3.784 x 10^11
2003
31,639,670
-329,144
1.08 x 10^11
2004
31,940,676
-28,138
791,747, 044
2005
32,245,209
276,395
7.64 x 10^10
2006
32,576,074
607260
3.688 x 10^11
As you can see in my raw data, the population steadily increases almost at a linear rate. This tells me that over 6 years (2000- 2006) that the population is steadily increasing, with no fluctuations. This makes me predict that as time goes on, the population will continue to increase. I would then make the further prediction that the demand for these gas emission burning products will also increase.
VARIABLE TWO: GAS EMISSIONS
C2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
693,798
685,053
689,115
711,725
712,623
706,018
690,056p
Year
"x"
(x-µ)
(x-µ)²
2000
693,798
-4543
20,638,849
2001
685,053
-13,228
174,979,984
2002
689,115
-9226
85,119,076
2003
711,725
13,384
179,131,456
2004
712,623
14,282
203,975,524
2005
706,018
7,677
58,936,329
2006
690,056
-8,285
68,641,225
This data however, confused me. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions (by kilotonnes) produced in Canada peaked in 2004, than dropped by almost 6,000 in 2005 and decreased further by about 16,000 in 2006.
For my project, I decided a survey would not be relevant to the data I was analyzing. Because the population density of Canada is so uneven, and so culturally diverse, it would be difficult to survey a sample of citizens and not get skewed or inaccurate results. Also, in order to get more accurate results, I would need to take a census survey, which I do not have access to. Also, certain age groups of the population are able to obtain/ contribute to the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that Canada as a whole is producing. This is why I used my census data from E-Stat as my reliable source, for a higher accuracy in my results. If it were possible for me to conduct a survey to the population of Canada, or use a sample and have reliable results, I would likely use a Stratified sample, surveying groups of the population who are likely to contribute to my results. (i.e. licensed drivers, employees of different energy/power plants, etc.) Theoretically, from this survey, I would have to consider: Sampling Bias: not all of the population contributes to greenhouse gas emissions in the same way as everyone else, therefore my sample would not be a good representation of the population.
TWO VARIABLE DATA ANALYSIS
"x"
"y"
"x²"
"y²"
"xy"
30,685,730
693,798
9.42 x 10^14
4.81 x 10^11
2.13 x 10^13
31,019,020
685,053
9.62 x 10^14
4.69 x 10^11
2.12 x 10^13
31,353,656
689,115
9.83 x 10^14
4.75 x 10^11
2.16 x 10^13
31, 639, 670
711,725
1.00 x 10^15
5.07 x 10^11
2.27 x 10^11
31,940,676
712,623
1.02 x 10^15
5.08 x 10^11
2.28 x 10^13
32,245,209
706,018
1.04 x 10^15
4.99 x 10^11
2.3 x 10^13
32, 576, 074
690,056
1.06 x 10^15
4.76 x 10^11
2.25 x 10^15
∑=221,460,035
∑=4,888,568
∑=7.007 x 10^15
∑=3.415 x 10^12
∑=2.36 x 10^15
Conclusion:Overall, I have found that my hypothesis was in fact, proven incorrect. Although the population was at a steady increase between 2000 and 2006, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions Canada was producing constantly fluctuated. It reached a high in 2004, and a low in 2001. The correlation was weak when looking at the data in a linear model, but was more correlated when looked at a cubic model. The graph in fact increased in correlation when the degree of the function increased.
By: Charlotte Burke
Stage One: Brainstorming
Topic of Interest: Environment or Morality Rates
- Environment and Global Warming
·Global Warming Effects on Wildlife Population
·Global Warming Effects on Vegetation
·Global Warming Effects on Marine Biodiversity
Ø Global Warming and marine life population
Ø Global Warming and Coral reef loss
Ø Sea Ice Surface Area and Polar Bear Population
- Population affects on morality statistics:
Ø Population vs. Morality by disease
Ø Population vs. Morality by cancer
Ø Population vs. Morality by automobile accident
- Population affects on the Environment
Ø Population affects on Gas Emissions Produced per year.
MAIN TOPIC OF INTEREST: Population vs. Gas Emissions Produced per year
Background Information:
For over a decade now, a main concern of many environmentalists has been the amount of green house gas emissions not only Canada, but the world produces each year. The term “Global Warming” refers to an increase of the average temperature in the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases are mainly composed of carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), water vapor and fluorinated gases. This mixture of gases is essential for the earth because without it the earth would release all of its heat leaving the earth extremely cold. However, this mixture of gases allows the heat from the sun to enter the atmosphere, but does not allow the heat to leave; Thus, producing an atmosphere that continues to heat up over time that never cools back down. This problem has been slowly increasing throughout the decades and has picked up speed at the beginning of the new millennium (2000).
With a possibility of an increasing population, this would create a higher demand for carbon and methane producing products, such as the burning of coal, oil and fossil fuels. Users of this include automobiles, aircrafts and watercrafts, industrial plants, coal burning power plants, landfills and electricity production. When the demand is higher, the production increases and more of these gases are produced, making a thicker atmosphere that holds more heat.
Increasing heat causes a temperature imbalance in the earth, causing many ecosystems and food chains to change and when they can’t keep up, collapse. For example, increasing temperatures cause loss of arctic sea ice, which melts away the habitat for many arctic creatures such as seals, sea lions, polar bears and penguins.
If the problem does not stop or decrease we will have serious environmental issues that will cause our entire earth suffering and to quickly adjust to the earth’s new adaptations.
BUT….. BACK TO THE ACTUAL PROJECT.
Data Information:
Geography- Canada
Years- 2000-2006
Question:
Does Canada’s population increase affect the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced in Canada on a yearly basis?
Hypothesis:
I predict that the population will be increasing over the years, and thus the cause the amount of gas emissions to increase as well. This is because as the population increases, so does the demand for natural gas, coal and oil producing products which create a higher concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere.
Stage 2: Data Analysis
VARIABLE ONE: POPULATION
As you can see in my raw data, the population steadily increases almost at a linear rate. This tells me that over 6 years (2000- 2006) that the population is steadily increasing, with no fluctuations. This makes me predict that as time goes on, the population will continue to increase. I would then make the further prediction that the demand for these gas emission burning products will also increase.
VARIABLE TWO: GAS EMISSIONS
This data however, confused me. The amount of greenhouse gas emissions (by kilotonnes) produced in Canada peaked in 2004, than dropped by almost 6,000 in 2005 and decreased further by about 16,000 in 2006.
Stage 3: One Variable Data
Variable One: Population (x)
µ=∑x/n
µ= (30,685,730)+(31,019,020)+(31,353,656)+(31,639,670)+(31,940,676)+(32,245,209)+(32,576,074)
7
µ= 31,637,147.86
median= 31,639,670 (2003)
mode= N/A
range= 30,685,730-32,576,074 OR 1,890,344
standard deviation:
σ= sqrt [∑(x-µ)²/n
σ= 704,982.3
Variable Two: Green House Gas Emissions (y)
µ=∑x/n
µ= (693,798)+(685,053)+(689,115)+(711,725)+(712,623)+(706,018)+(690,056)
7
µ= 698,341.14
median= 693,798
mode= N/A
range= 685,053-712,623 OR 27,570
standard deviation:
σ= sqrt [∑(x-µ)²/n
σ= 10,632 kt
Sampling Techniques/ Bias
For my project, I decided a survey would not be relevant to the data I was analyzing. Because the population density of Canada is so uneven, and so culturally diverse, it would be difficult to survey a sample of citizens and not get skewed or inaccurate results. Also, in order to get more accurate results, I would need to take a census survey, which I do not have access to. Also, certain age groups of the population are able to obtain/ contribute to the amount of greenhouse gas emissions that Canada as a whole is producing. This is why I used my census data from E-Stat as my reliable source, for a higher accuracy in my results.
If it were possible for me to conduct a survey to the population of Canada, or use a sample and have reliable results, I would likely use a Stratified sample, surveying groups of the population who are likely to contribute to my results. (i.e. licensed drivers, employees of different energy/power plants, etc.)
Theoretically, from this survey, I would have to consider:
Sampling Bias: not all of the population contributes to greenhouse gas emissions in the same way as everyone else, therefore my sample would not be a good representation of the population.
TWO VARIABLE DATA ANALYSIS
Conclusion: Overall, I have found that my hypothesis was in fact, proven incorrect. Although the population was at a steady increase between 2000 and 2006, the amount of greenhouse gas emissions Canada was producing constantly fluctuated. It reached a high in 2004, and a low in 2001. The correlation was weak when looking at the data in a linear model, but was more correlated when looked at a cubic model. The graph in fact increased in correlation when the degree of the function increased.
Bibliography:
Canada's total Greenhouse Gas Emissions Decreased in 2008 (2010, April 15). In Environment Canada. Retrieved January 18, 2011, from http://www.ec.gc.ca/default.asp?lang=En&n=714D9AAE-1&news=FC46978A-85F8-4BB5-B1BF-3DE20350E0C0
Canada vs. the OECD: An Environmental Comparison (n.d.). In Environmental Indicators. Retrieved January 11, 2011, from http://www.environmentalindicators.com/htdocs/indicators/5gree.htm
Hopwood, N., & Cohen, J. (n.d.). Greenhouse Gases and Society. Retrieved January 11, 2011, from http://www.umich.edu/~gs265/society/greenhouse.htm
http://estat.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-win/cnsmcgi.pgm?regtkt=&C2Sub=&LANG=E&C2DB=EST&C2USER=&C2PASS=&C2APASS=&C2USEWRK=&SDDSLOC=//www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/*.htm&ROOTDIR=ESTAT/&VEC=&RESULTTEMPLATE=ESTAT/CII_ASUM&ARRAY_SUMM=1&SDDSID=&DRILLFILE=&ARRAYID=510001
http://estat.statcan.gc.ca/cgi-win/cnsmcgi.pgm?regtkt=&C2Sub=&LANG=E&C2DB=EST&C2USER=&C2PASS=&C2APASS=&C2USEWRK=&SDDSLOC=//www.statcan.gc.ca/imdb-bmdi/*.htm&ROOTDIR=ESTAT/&VEC=&RESULTTEMPLATE=ESTAT/CII_ASUM&ARRAY_SUMM=1&SDDSID=&DRILLFILE=&ARRAYID=1530033